Poll: Results ‘Reversed’ in 2024 Election as Donald Trump Leads Joe Biden Among Independents

By HANNAH KNUDSEN

President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden among independents, an I&I/TIPP Poll, released Monday, found.

• The overall survey showed Biden and Trump virtually tied in a matchup with third-party candidates included, with Biden garnering 39 percent support and Trump seeing 38 percent support. Another 12 percent chose independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., followed by one percent for independent candidate Cornel West and one percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

  The survey also showed independents favoring Trump over Biden in a head-to-head race by a five-point margin, although 15 percent remain unsure. The margin for Trump among independents only grows when third-party candidates are included, leading Biden with 33 percent to 25 percent — an eight-point margin. Eighteen percent go to RFK Jr., followed by two percent for West and Stein, each.

  TIPP Insights notes that this is significant because “independents in the last election favored Biden 54% to Trump’s 41%.”

  “That has, for all intents and purposes, been reversed this time around, as the I&I/TIPP data demonstrate,” per the survey, which noted that Trump has made gains in other demographics as well:

  African-Americans, for instance, gave 87% of their vote to Biden in 2020, compared to just 12% for Trump. But that’s changed dramatically in 2024: Black voters say they favor Biden by 59%, a 28% decline from four years ago, while 15% say they back Trump, a three percentage-point gain. All told, it’s a 31-point swing.
  
  Among Hispanics, Biden slammed Trump in 2020, 65% to 32%. In this month’s I&I/TIPP Poll, Hispanics give just 47% support to Biden, 26% to Trump, and 13% to Kennedy.

  The survey also asked respondents who they believe will win the election, regardless of their personal political preference. Overall, more believe Trump will win than Biden, 37 percent to Biden’s 34 percent:

  37% expect Trump to win
  
  34% expect Biden to win
  
  15% say it's too close to call pic.twitter.com/FnWtnFQ8wZ
  
  — Polling USA (@USA_Polling) May 6, 2024

  The survey was taken May 1-3, 2024, among 1,264 respondents. It has a ± 2.8 percent margin of error.