An Inside Look: The 5 Worst Polls Democrats Dread This July 4th

By WENDELL HUSEBØ

President Donald Trump’s momentum on July 4th is perhaps the strongest he’s experienced during the 2024 cycle, several independent surveys show.

• Even before President Joe Biden’s terrible performance in last week’s debate, many polls showed Trump beating Biden in almost every facet: national surveys, swing state surveys, key issue surveys.

  Post-debate polls appear to show Trump gaining turbocharged energy.

  The Biden campaign, however, appears to disagree with the data. It circulated an internal poll in recent days that shows Biden’s standing in the race as unchanged. Doubt exists as to whether Biden’s internal polling is accurate.

  According to Nate Silver’s election model forecast from June 30 — after the first presidential debate — Trump leads Biden by six points in the probability of winning the popular vote in November. The last Republican to win the popular vote was George W. Bush in 2004 with 50.73 percent.

  Silver’s June 30 election model forecast is the first time it predicted Trump would defeat Biden in the popular vote. Trump was behind by two points one day before the debate, the forecast predicted.

  More importantly, the probability that Trump will win the electoral college — the process by which the election is decided — is 68.4 percent. Biden’s chances of reelection are just 31 percent.

  Below are the top five post-debate polls that appear to confirm Silver’s analysis:

  ONE: Suffolk University poll: Forty-one percent of Democrat voters want President Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 race, while only 51 percent want him to remain on the ticket.

  TWO: YouGov poll: 72 percent of voters say Biden does not have the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, while another 72 percent of voters want Biden to drop out of the race.

  THREE: New York Times/Siena poll: Trump leads Biden by 6 points, a three-point swing from last week and the largest recorded lead since 2015 in Times polling.

  FOUR: Wall Street Journal poll: Trump leads Biden by 6 points, his largest-ever lead in a Journal survey.

  FIVE: Leaked internal Open Labs poll: “Biden’s vote share in the two-way horse race declined by -0.8pp,” and the “vote share against Trump in the multi-way also declined by -0.8pp.” The results reveal “the largest single-week drop since horse race tracking began in late 2021,” according to the memo.

  Honorable Mention: CNN poll: Trump built a lead over Biden of 49 percent to 43 percent.