Poll: Most Republicans Say Biden’s Exit Makes Trump ‘More Likely to Win’

By HANNAH KNUDSEN

A plurality of U.S. adults, as well as a majority of Republicans, say President Joe Biden’s exit from the presidential race makes President Donald Trump “more likely” to win, a recent survey from YouGov found.

• The survey asked respondents, “What impact do you think Joe Biden’s decision to step aside as the Democratic nominee will have on the 2024 presidential election?”

  Overall, a plurality, 36 percent, believe it “makes Donald Trump more likely to win.” Another 23 percent believe it makes Trump “less likely to win,” 23 percent remain unsure, and 18 percent said it will “have no impact” on Trump’s chances in November.

  Among Republicans, specifically, most — 53 percent — expressed confidence that Biden’s absence from the Democrat ticket will make it “more likely” for Trump to win. Another 24 percent of Republicans said it will have no impact on Trump’s chances, and 15 percent remain unsure. Only eight percent believe it makes it “less likely” that Trump would emerge as the victor.

  A plurality of independents, 34 percent, agree with the majority of Republicans who believe Biden’s exit from the race makes it more likely that Trump would win. Over a quarter, 26 percent, are not sure, followed by 23 percent who believe it makes it less likely for Trump to win and 17 percent who said it will have no impact.

  Less than a majority, 37 percent, of Democrats say Biden’s absence from the ticket makes it less likely that Trump will win, but 26 percent remain unsure and 22 percent believe it makes it more likely that Trump will have a victory in November. Another 15 percent said it will have no impact.

  The survey was taken July 21 among 2,048 U.S. adults. It came the same day Biden made the big announcement, writing in part, “While it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.”

  He then endorsed Harris in another post.

  pic.twitter.com/RMIRvlSOYw
  
  — Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024

  My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best… pic.twitter.com/x8DnvuImJV
  
  — Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024

  Trump said in a Truth Social post, “Crooked Joe Biden was not fit to run for President, and is certainly not fit to serve – And never was!” Later he joked, “It’s not over! Tomorrow Crooked Joe Biden’s going to wake up and forget that he dropped out of the race today!”

  “The Democrats pick a candidate, Crooked Joe Biden, he loses the Debate badly, then panics, and makes mistake after mistake, is told he can’t win, and decide they will pick another candidate, probably Harris,” Trump said Monday.

  “They stole the race from Biden after he won it in the primaries — A First! These people are the real THREAT TO DEMOCRACY!” he exclaimed.