CNN Poll: Trump Holds 3 Point Lead over Harris After Biden Quit

By WENDELL HUSEBØ

President Donald Trump holds a three-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among registered voters, CNN polling found Wednesday after President Joe Biden stepped aside.

• The poll is one of the first published surveys after Biden endorsed Harris for president.

  • • Trump: 49 percent
  • • Harris: 46 percent

  The poll sampled 1,631 voters from July 22-33 with a 3-point margin of error.

  CNN’s poll conducted in June found Trump led Harris by six points, underscoring the “honeymoon” period Harris enjoys as the de facto nominee of the struggling Democrat party.

  The poll found Trump’s support has not changed much since Harris entered the race:

  The poll also suggests that Trump’s support among his strongest groups is holding steady even as his opponent changes: 67% of White voters without degrees support him over Harris, near-identical to his support against Biden (66%). He continues to hold the support of a majority of men (53% versus Harris, it was 54% against Biden). And he maintains the support of about 9 in 10 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (90% vs. Harris, 89% against Biden).

  Harris appeared to slightly improve upon Biden’s lead among voters ages 18-34, but not enough to overcome Trump’s inroads with the demographic. The finding contradicts the Harris campaign’s claim that it has a path to victory due to Harris’s unique ability to galvanize the young vote, according to a memo released Wednesday.

  “It’s just not there in the numbers despite all the internet memes that are going around,” Harry Enten, host of CNN’s “Margins of Error” podcast said.

  Brat Summer or not, I looked into whether Harris has unique appeal to young voters. She doesn't. She's doing much worse against Trump than Biden did in 2020.
  
  Moreover, young Democrats are NOT disproportionately more motivated to vote than other Democrats because of Biden's exit pic.twitter.com/WpH5Sf4vPE
  
  — (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 24, 2024

  In 2024, young voters are split (49-49 percent) between identifying as Republicans and Democrats. In 2020, according to Pew Research, 56 percent of young voters identified as Democrats, while 39 percent identified as Republicans.

  “When we say that Harris is doing worse than Biden, it’s not that she’s uniquely bad,” Enten said. “It’s rather, she’s fighting uphill. She’s trying to fight against a wave that is going against the Democrats among young voters.”

  Biden won the young vote — under the age of 35 — by 21 points in 2020. In contrast, Harris underperforms Biden, according to CNN polling. She only holds a nine-point lead, 12 points worse than Biden’s performance.

  In worse news for Harris, Democrats are split about if Harris should continue the Biden-Harris administration’s policies. Harris will not change her positions or distance herself from the Biden administration’s positions, three sources in Harris world told Politico Playbook on Wednesday, citing three reasons:

  1. Harris partnered with Biden for three years on policy
  2. Harris will not want to undermine Biden’s legacy
  3. Harris is still Biden’s vice president and must work with him every day

  CNN broke down the Democrats’ split over the Biden-Harris administration’s policies:

  But Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters are closely split over whether the next nominee should continue Biden’s policies (53%) or take the country in a new direction (47%). Desire for a new direction is largely concentrated among younger voters and voters of color.
  
  Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, voters older than 65 (72%), White voters (62%) and those with college degrees (58%) largely want the party’s next nominee to follow in Biden’s footsteps. Six in 10 voters of color and voters younger than 45 say they’re looking for a new direction on policy.
  
  By contrast, there’s little ideological divide on this question, with similar shares of self-described liberals (55%) and moderates or conservatives (51%) hoping to see the next nominee continue with Biden’s policies.

  Harris championed the administration’s record of policy blunders in her first appearances since jumping into the Democrat primary race.

  “Joe Biden’s legacy of accomplishment over the past three years is unmatched in modern history,” she claimed, asking people to clap. “In one term — he has already — yes, you may clap. In one term, he has already surpassed the legacy of most presidents who have served two terms in office.”