Poll: Voters More Confident Trump Will Win over Harris in November

By Hannah Knudsen

Likely voters are slightly more confident that President Donald Trump will emerge as the victor over Vice President Kamala Harris in November, a Rasmussen Reports survey released this week found.

• The survey asked respondents, “Regardless of who you plan to vote for, who do you think is most likely to win the presidential election?”

  Overall, 45 percent of likely voters believe Trump will win, compared to 43 percent who said Harris — a two-point difference. Another 11 percent remain unsure.

  Among Democrats specifically, 76 percent are confident that Harris will win, compared to 16 percent who believe Trump will win. Another seven percent remain unsure.

  Among Republicans, 77 percent said they believe Trump will win, compared to 16 percent who believe Harris will win, and seven percent who remain unsure.

  However, a plurality of independents are more confident that Trump will win over Harris — 45 percent to Harris’s 36 percent. Another 19 percent of independents remain unsure.

  More via Rasmussen Reports:

  Among those who say they’ll vote for Harris, 87% say she is most likely to win, compared to 82% of Trump voters who think he is the most likely winner. It’s among undecided voters that Trump has a decisive advantage on this question, with 35% believing him to be most likely to win, compared to just three percent (3%) who see Harris as the likely winner.

  The survey was taken September 23-25, 2024, among 1,080 U.S. likely voters. It has a +/- 3 percent margin of error and comes as Trump continues to make strides in both state level and national polling.

  A recently released Marist poll, for instance, shows Trump taking a lead among independent voters, garnering 50 percent support to Harris’s 46 percent support. That survey also showed Harris behind President Joe Biden in terms of support from non-white voters:

  While Harris (71%) is ahead of Trump (28%) among likely voters who plan to cast their ballot by mail or absentee ballot, Trump (58%) has the advantage over Harris (40%) among those who plan to vote on Election Day. Those who plan to vote at an early voting location divide (50% for Trump to 48% for Harris).
  
  Trump (53%) leads Harris (45%) among white voters who are likely to cast a ballot. Harris (60%) is ahead of Trump (39%) among non-white voters although still behind Biden’s showing among these voters in 2020 (71%).

  The surveys come ahead of Trump’s highly anticipated rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, taking place Saturday, October 5 — nearly three months after the first attempt on his life.

  Trump is expected to honor firefighter, husband, and father Corey Comperatore, who lost his life that day.